The article in the url below demonstrates the danger of relying on carbon offsets to work our way towards carbon neutrality:
"Up to 90% of [11 million] saplings planted in Turkey as part of a record-breaking mass planting project may have died after just a few months, according to the country's agriculture and forestry trade union."
The problem comes when the people driving such projects bring their good intentions, but lack the necessary expertise:
"The government-backed programme broke the world record for the most trees planted in one hour in a single location, with 303,150 saplings planted in the northern Anatolian city of Çorum. The head of the union claimed, however, that 90% of the saplings his teams have inspected so far have died because of insufficient water. [A spokesperson] attributed the deaths to the saplings being planted at 'the wrong time' and 'not by experts,' as well as a lack of rainfall."
What would be interesting is to see how this tree planting project was accounted for at the time it was initiated. If, for example, 11m trees are expected to absorb a certain amount of carbon over their lifetimes, that amount of carbon can either be offset in one lump today or it can be amortized over the expected life of the trees. The latter method is more accurate (and honest) and should be weighted toward the end of the time period, because older, bigger trees absorb more CO2 than younger, smaller trees. Adopting this approach avoids falsely accounting for carbon that has yet to be removed from the atmosphere; it also allows for eventualities such as the trees dying and, therefore, never being able to reach their full, carbon-absorbing potential:
"The dispute adds to the global debate about mass tree-planting, with critics pointing out the sometimes poor survival rate of mass-planted saplings, and the use of such projects to 'greenwash' states and companies with otherwise poor environmental records."
If firms continue producing carbon at their current rates, then falsely accounting for carbon absorption will not make much difference. But, by planting trees that die before they get to absorb the carbon that has been 'allocated' to them, not only are we doing nothing to reduce the future damage of climate change, we are also kidding ourselves that we are making any kind of meaningful progress.
Take care
David
David Chandler
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Most of 11m trees planted in Turkish project 'may be dead'
By Sami Kent
January 30, 2020
The Guardian
