The Economist recently started a news service (podcasts, newsletters, etc.) that seeks to be more up-to-date than the weekly magazine publication -- The Insider. One recent edition of the associated newsletter quoted some amazing statistics/projections on the dynamics of population growth, or decline:
"Chad Jones of Stanford calculated that, if the world's families have one child on average, the global population would fall from 8bn to 1bn in three generations (75 years), to 125m in six generations, and to just 8m people in ten generations. Too-few births, he argued, means 'living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes.'"
The self-reinforcing, cumulative nature of the potential decline is framed as "the global fertility crash":
"Two-thirds of people now live in countries where fertility is below the 'replacement rate' of 2.1 births per woman—the standard estimate of what is needed to maintain a stable population."
We often hear about how resource-stretched the planet is, but the above statistic (while extreme) suggests creating a balance is more precarious than we think.
Take care
David
David Chandler
© Sage Publications, 2023
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The baby bust is here. How will the world economy cope?
By Henry Curr
November 17, 2025
The Economist
