This quote from the article in the url below needs little explanation or accompanying commentary:
“There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2°C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change. … The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits to holding the average global temperature to ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5°C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5°C.”
So, what is the new prognosis?
“According to the [research], there is a 90% likelihood that temperatures will rise between 2°C and 4.9°C by 2100. This would put the world in the mid-range warming scenarios mapped out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It negates the most optimistic outcome as well as the worst case, which would see temperatures climb nearly 6°C beyond the pre-industrial era.”
For a more complex (and alternative and, therefore, controversial) take on the speed at which climate change is occurring, see the article in the second url below:
“It may be possible for the world to emit significantly more carbon dioxide in the next few decades than was previously thought, and still keep global warming ‘well below’ a 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels, which is what the [Paris] agreement requires.”
Have a good weekend.
David
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Planet has just 5% chance of reaching Paris climate goal, study says
By Oliver Milman
July 31, 2017
The Guardian
Breathing space
September 23, 2017
The Economist
Late Edition – Final
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