The article in the url below alerts us to the further expansion of the world's population, which is just about to break another record:
"Later this year—any day now really—the global population is projected to cross eight billion people. The United Nations recently pegged the date as Nov. 15, but we don't know with any exact precision."
The growth of the world's population seems relentless, which is where the article suggests our perceptions are mistaken:
"But as we cross eight billion people, it is worth considering that the world might never make it to 10 billion, or even nine billion, and that the world's major demographic problems won't stem from the growing masses but from shrinking countries, aging populations and dwindling workforces."
There is nothing suspicious about this, but is in fact the normal course of events. As affluence spreads, the need to have larger families decreases:
"We aren't talking about meteor strikes, alien invasions or apocalyptic scenarios (though, of course, that could do it, too) but rather straightforward demographic projections that conclude that birthrates have been falling so rapidly around the world that we could potentially reach the peak of human population in less than a generation."
The chart accompanying the article suggests broad agreement among different predictions about the overall trajectory, even if the specific numbers diverge by the odd billion, or so:
The difference can largely be attributed to competing projections for the population of Africa:
"The U.N. projects Africa's population will grow from 1.3 billion today to 3.9 billion by century's end. Once education is accounted for, Wittgenstein's baseline scenario projects Africa's population will rise to 2.9 billion during that time period. In another scenario from Wittgenstein, which it calls the 'rapid development' scenario, the population of Africa will only reach 1.7 billion by century's end."
Either way, that is a lot of people who are consuming the world's resources at a rapid rate.
Take care
David
David Chandler
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Global Population Is About the Hit 8 Billion – and Some Argue It Is Near Its Peak
By Josh Zumbrun
August 12, 2022
The Wall Street Journal
