We have long known that humans are far from rational when evaluating risk and calculating self-interest. Along these lines, the article in the url below is not particularly surprising (given that price seems to motivate so much of consumer behavior), but it is still entertaining (and/or depressing) to see how bad humans are at making important decisions:
"A midsummer quiz: Let's say you read about an area experiencing blistering heat for weeks on end. Heat so hot that in the day, you can't go outside, and at nighttime it's still above 90F. Would you cross that off your list of locations for your dream home? Now suppose a neighborhood experiences regular heavy flooding and was recently decimated in places by a hurricane. Do you want to move there, or perhaps look for somewhere on higher, drier ground?"
Apparently not:
"Well, many Americans are actually choosing to move to Zip codes with a high risk of experiencing wildfire, heat, drought and flood, according to a new study on domestic migration. … In fact, the nation's most flood-prone counties experienced a net influx of about 400,000 people in 2021 and 2022. That represents a 103% increase from the two-year period before that. The US counties with the highest risk of wildfire saw 446,000 more people move in than out over the last two years (a 51% increase from 2019 and 2020). And the counties with the highest heat risk registered a net influx of 629,000, a 17% uptick."
The chart in the article captures the extent to which we are getting even better at making bad decisions (even while the climate around us continues to provide compelling evidence that we should not be doing what we are doing, and insurance companies are stopping some forms of emergency coverage):
There are plenty of examples in the article, if you can get past the firewall. Here is one, just in case you cannot:
"Popular destinations such as Florida, Arizona, Utah and California's Inland Empire can have cheaper land costs for builders and, in some cases, more forgiving building codes, translating to lower new-home prices, but often the climate risks are higher than for older homes. … 55% of homes built so far this decade face wildfire risk and 45% face drought risk. By comparison, just 14% of homes built from 1900 to 1959 are at risk for fire and 37% for drought."
Somewhat encouragingly, there does seem to be a limit to our poor decision making:
"While the macro trend is migration to risky areas, there are two noteworthy exceptions. Hurricane-prone Louisiana and Paradise, California, the scene of the devastating Camp Fire in 2018, both saw a net outflow of residents, proving that perhaps there is a line where enough is enough."
Take care
David
David Chandler
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Americans are moving toward climate danger
By Leslie Kaufman
July 24, 2023
Bloomberg
